| 用三维自回归趋势面模型预测HFRS的时空动态趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛付忠,王洁贞,马希兰.用三维自回归趋势面模型预测HFRS的时空动态趋势[J].山东大学学报(医学版),2000,38(2):148-150. |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛付忠 王洁贞 马希兰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 山东医科大学科研处
2. 山东省平邑县卫生防疫站 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省自然科学基金资助课题(Y99C04) |
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| 摘 要： | 目的探讨三维自回归趋势面模型技术在HFRS时-空动态分析预测中的应用价值。方法在二维自回归趋势面模型基础，通过加入时间变量t，构造三维自回归趋势面模型，结果获得三维自回归趋势面模型及其建模方法。结论该模型不仅可分析HFRS的空间趋势，而且可预测其空间趋势的时间变化特征。
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| 关 键 词： | 肾综合征出血热 三维自回归趋势面模型 疾病时-空动态 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0496(2000)02-0148-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999-04-08 |
STUDY IN SPACE-TIME DYNAMIC TREND OF HFRS WITH TRI-DIMENSIONAL AUTO-REGRESSION TREND SURFACE MODEL |
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| XUE Fu-zhong,WANG Jie-zhen,MA Xi-lan.STUDY IN SPACE-TIME DYNAMIC TREND OF HFRS WITH TRI-DIMENSIONAL AUTO-REGRESSION TREND SURFACE MODEL[J].Journal of Shandong University:Health Sciences,2000,38(2):148-150. |
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| Authors: | XUE Fu-zhong WANG Jie-zhen MA Xi-lan |
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| Abstract: | To explore the applicability of tri-dimensional auto-regression trend surface model in studying the space-time dynamic of disease. Methods Based on the spatial correlation or auto-correlation hypotheses, the bi-dimensional auto-regression trend surface model was put forward. By using the time variable t, tri-demensional auto-regression trend surface model was eatablisbed. ResultsThe tir-dimensional auto-regression trend surface model and the method to build this model were obtained. Conclusion In studying the spatial distribution and its space-time dynamic of disease, not only the spatial distribution dynamic of disease, but also its space-time dynamic can be analyzed by fitting tri-dimensional auto-regression trend surface model. |
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| Keywords: | Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome Tri-dimensional auto-regression trend surface model Space-time dynamic of disease |
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