High incidence of and risk factors for metachronous bilateral upper tract urothelial carcinoma in Taiwan

AIM: Urothelial carcinoma (UC) can occur multifocally in the whole urothelium. A higher rate of bilateral metachronous upper tract (UT) UC was noted in Taiwan. The incidence and risk factors were largely unknown and hence were explored in the study. METHODS: From January 1977 through June 2003, 462 patients with unilateral UT-UC were studied retrospectively. The cumulative incidence of contralateral recurrence was analysed with the Kaplan-Meier analysis. Potential risk factors for contralateral recurrence including age, smoking, bladder cancer, renal function, diagnostic year etc. were evaluated with the log-rank test. Independent risk factors were identified by using the Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 34 months (6-337). Among the 462 patients, 52 (11.3%) developed metachronous contralateral UC. The 2, 5, and 10-year contralateral disease-free survivals were 93.5%, 84.0%, and 75.7%, respectively. The median time to contralateral recurrence was 31.0 months. With the univariate analysis, only poor renal function (serum creatinine < or > OR =2.0 mg/dL, P < 0.001) and late diagnostic year (before or after 1990, P < 0.001) were risk factors for contralateral recurrence. In the multivariate analysis, poor renal function (hazard ratio: 2.98; 95% confidence interval: 1.67-5.33; P < 0.001) and late diagnostic year (hazard ratio: 4.27; 95% confidence interval: 1.71-10.65; P = 0.002) remained independent risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of metachronous UT-UC is high in Taiwan. Patients who had either chronic renal insufficiency or a disease diagnosed after 1990 had a higher risk of contralateral recurrence.