GM(1,1)灰色模型在疟疾疫情预测中的应用

目的探讨灰色模型在海南省疟疾流行预测及防治效果评价中的应用价值。方法建立GM（1，1）模型。根据1999年-2004年海南省疟疾发病率建立疟疾发病率预测模型，并对2005年海南省疟疾发病情况进行预测，从而对海南省2005年疟疾防治效果进行评价。结果海南省疟疾发病率预测数学模型分别为Y（t）=135．8807e^0.2237（t-1）-64．6007，经拟合检验，模型拟合度好（C=0．2949，P=1．000）。利用本模型对2005年海南省疟疾发病率进行外推，估计2005年海南省疟疾发病率为130．43／10万，实际发病率为52．46／10万，发病率比预计的减少了77．97／10万，降幅达59．78％。结论建立的疟疾发病率预测数学模型拟合度好，2005年疟疾发病率的模型预测值与观察值差异显示海南省2005疟疾防治取得了明显效果。

Application of GM (1,1) Grey Model in Malaria Epidemic Situation Forecast

ObjectiveTo explore the application value of grey model in malaria epidemic situation forecastand the effect of prevention and control in Hainan Province in 2005.Methods According to the malaria incidence of Hainan province from 1999 to 2004,a forecasting model of malaria incidence was built,and the trend of the incidence of malaria in 2005 was forecasted in order to evaluate the effect of prevention and treatment.Results The mathematical model was established as (t)=135.8807e~(0.2237(t-1))-64.6007,and the estimation test results of model are C=0.2949,P=1.000.Extrapolating the incidence in Hainan Province in 2005,it is estimated that the malaria incidence is 130.43/100000 in Hainan Province in 2005.The actual incidence is 52.46/100000.The incidence decreases 77.97/100000 than the estimated,and the lower width is 59.78%.Conclusion The grey model is fit for malaria incidence forecast.The differential value of the malaria incidence in 2005 between forecast value and observed value shows that Hainan province achieves obvious effect in malaria prevention and control.