Bacterial resistance to penicillin G by decreased affinity of penicillin-binding proteins: a mathematical model

Streptococcus pneumoniae and Neisseria meningitidis have very similar mechanisms of resistance to penicillin G. Although penicillin resistance is now common in S. pneumoniae, it is still rare in N. meningitidis. Using a mathematical model, we studied determinants of this difference and attempted to anticipate trends in meningococcal resistance to penicillin G. The model predicted that pneumococcal resistance in a population similar to that of France might emerge after 20 years of widespread use of beta-lactam antibiotics; this period may vary from 10 to 30 years. The distribution of resistance levels became bimodal with time, a pattern that has been observed worldwide. The model suggests that simple differences in the natural history of colonization, interhuman contact, and exposure to beta-lactam antibiotics explain major differences in the epidemiology of resistance of S. pneumoniae and N. meningitidis.