长乐市胃癌高发现场10年肿瘤防治工作效果评价

目的 对福建省长乐市胃癌高发现场１０年的防治效果进行评价。方法 对肿瘤标化发病率序列进行随机性检验和趋势检验。肿瘤发病率短期预测采用ＣＭ法建立模型及生存率（ＯＳ）根据Ｋａｐｌａｎ－Ｍｅｉｅｒ法，ＳＡＳ软件包上进行分析。结果 长乐市１０年间，男性恶性肿瘤呈后降趋势，胃癌呈下降趋势，女性无变化。短期预测结果显示，恶性肿瘤、胃癌发病率趋下降，肝癌趋平稳。长乐市居民呈下降趋势。女性无变化。短期预测显示，恶

Evaluation of ten year results of cancer prevention and treatment in Changle City with high incidence of gastric cancer

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the results of cancer prevention and treatment over a 10-year period (1988-1997) in Changle City with high incidence of gastric cancer. METHODS: The results were analysed with sick rate random test, trend test, GM and Kaplan-Meier method with SAS statistical software. RESULTS: During the ten years, the sick rate of malignant tumors in male residents initially increased but then decreased. Gastric cancer had a tendency to decline. There was no obvious change for females. By short-term prediction, the sick rate of malignant tumors and gastric cancer would decrease, and that of liver cancer remain steady. The life expectancy of male residents increased 4.2 years and that of female residents increased 1.8 years from 1988 to 1997 if cancer death was ignored, but the increase was not significant if only deaths from gastric and liver cancers were excluded. The 5-year survival rate of gastric cancer and liver cancer increased 8.8% and 29.3% from 1988 to 1990, respectively. The cumulative risk rate of gastric cancer in males was 3 times as high as that of females, and that of liver cancer in males was 2.5 times as high as that of females. CONCLUSION: Sustained measures of cancer prevention and treatment woult anticipate further improvement of health status of Changle's residents in the years to come.