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| 随机时间序列分析法在传染病预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 王春平,王志锋,单杰,王笑男.随机时间序列分析法在传染病预测中的应用[J].中国医院统计,2006,13(3):229-232. |
| 作者姓名： | 王春平 王志锋 单杰 王笑男 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 100005,中国医学科学院基础医学研究所/中国协和医科大学基础医学院;潍坊医学院 2. 北京大学 3. 潍坊市卫生局 4. 潍坊医学院 |
| 摘 要： | 目的阐述ARIMA模型拟合时间序列的方法和步骤,并将其应用于乙型肝炎的预测,为传染病预警系统提供决策依据。方法利用SPSS统计软件求解适宜的ARIMA模型,据所得误差评价预测效果。结果通过对乙型肝炎发病率的预测,相对误差在15%左右,预测效果较为可靠。结论在乙型肝炎的近期预测中引入时间序列的ARIMA模型分析方法,能够对传染病的预测产生积极的指导意义。 |
| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 时间序列 乙型肝炎 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-5253(2006)03-0229-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年2月7日 |
Application in infectious disease forecasting by ARIMA model |
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| WANG Chun-ping,WANG Zhi-feng,SHAN Jie,et al..Application in infectious disease forecasting by ARIMA model[J].Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics,2006,13(3):229-232. | |
| Authors: | WANG Chun-ping WANG Zhi-feng SHAN Jie |
| Institution: | WANG Chun-ping,WANG Zhi-feng,SHAN Jie,et al. Fundamental Medical Institute of Chinese Medical Science Academy,Beijing,100005 and Wefang Medical College,Shandong,261042 |
| Abstract: | Objective The approach and procedure to fit time series with ARIMA models are discussed briefly. The application to forecast hepatitis B is given to help infectious diseases forecasting system. Methods Proper ARIMA model is obtained with SPSS system and the effectiveness is evaluated. Results The error of prediction to hepatitis B is around 15%, which show a satisfactory effectiveness. Conclusion It is both necessary and practical to apply the approach of ARIMA model in fitting time series to predict hepatitis B with a short lead time. |
| Keywords: | ARIMA model Time series Hepatitis B |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |