Serum alpha-fetoprotein levels and liver histology in patients with chronic hepatitis C

Objective: The clinical and morphological significance of a raised alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level in patients with chronic hepatitis C is undefined. We sought to determine the relation between serum AFP level and liver histology in this population.
Methods: We reviewed the clinical and histological records of 200 consecutively evaluated patients with chronic hepatitis C whose serum AFP levels were recorded. Two groups were studied: group I = 125/200 (62%) patients with normal AFP, < 10 ng/ml; and group II = 75/200 (38%) patients with raised AFP, > 10 ng/ml. The groups were compared according to age, gender, duration of disease, histology, and history of alcohol abuse.
Results: There was no significant difference in serum AFP based on age, gender, alcohol consumption, or disease duration. Significant histological differences were observed: cirrhosis was present in 57 (45%) patients in group I versus 51 (68%) in group II (   p < 0.001  ). Hepatocellular carcinoma was more frequent in group II (14/75 19%]) than in group I (1/125 1%]) (   p < 0.001  ). Ten of 77 (13%) noncirrhotic patients and 51/108 (47%) cirrhotic patients had a raised AFP (   p < 0.002  ; relative risk, 3.262; confidence interval C.I.], 1.912–5.564). A derived AFP level of 17.8 ng/ml maximized specificity for predicting histological outcome: one of 76 (1.3%), 29/108 (26.8%), and 14/15 (93.3%) patients were noncirrhotic, cirrhotic, or had HCC, respectively. This derived AFP value is 35% sensitive and 98.6% specific for cirrhosis, with a positive predictive value of 97.7%.
Conclusions: A serum AFP level >17.8 ng/ml strongly suggests the diagnosis of cirrhosis in a population of patients with chronic hepatitis C.