Assessment of atmospheric dispersion and radiological impact from the Fukushima accident in a 40-km range using a simulation approach

In this study, radiation doses and lifetime attributable health risk to the members of public in a 40-km impact zone around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) were assessed for the airborne releases that occurred during 11–31 March 2011 from the loss of coolant accident associated with the east Japan earthquake and tsunami event. High-resolution simulations with FLEXPART-WRF Lagrangian particle dispersion model were made using available source term estimates for four significant isotopes (Cs134, Cs137, I131, Xe133). Radiation risk models were adopted to estimate the health risk for leukemia, breast, thyroid, and all solid cancers using simulated distributed lifetime organ doses. The simulations indicate occurrence of hotspots in the spatial activity deposition and radiation dose distribution with high values in the northwest and south-southwest land sectors in a 40-km radius. Large activity depositions (10⁶ to 10⁸ Bq/m² of Cs137 between 12 and 31 March 2011) and external air doses (10 to 100 μSv/h) are simulated in the above sectors. The simulated air dose rates are found to match with observed doses at 85 % of the monitor stations within a factor of 5. It is estimated that the groundshine and ingestion dose are the principal contributors of the effective dose. Simulated average effective dose during the first year of exposure varied as ~150 mSv in the first few kilometers to 2 mSv at 40 km. The risk incidence was estimated to be high for infants compared to the children and adult age group for all types of cancers. The first 0–20-km range of the FDNPP is characterized with high risk for all types of cancers, for example, 10 to 20 in 10,000 adults for leukemia. The analysis shows that the immediate implementation of countermeasures of evacuation in the 0–20-km zone, sheltering in the 20–40-km zone, and food restrictions by Japan actually reduced significant health risks to the population living near FDNPP. Simulated yearly distribution of total dose indicates that people of evacuated zone can be rehabilitated in about 16 years in the 5–10-km area and 7 years in the 10–20-km area with minimum risk, whereas the near reactor zone of 0–5 km and areas along the plume footprint up to 20 km in the northwest sector of FDNPP require special attention and reclamation measures for rehabilitation. This study demonstrates a total simulation-based approach for estimating the radiation risk for the Fukushima case and helps to assess the time attainment of low risk for inhabitation of the people in the affected areas.