| 肾综合征出血热发病率的小波预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴学森,王洁贞,刘云霞,张娜. 肾综合征出血热发病率的小波预测模型[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2004, 20(9): 1031-1033 |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴学森 王洁贞 刘云霞 张娜 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 山东大学公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室,济南,250012;安徽蚌埠医学院
2. 山东大学公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室,济南,250012 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助 (30 0 70 677) |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 建立季节性水平变化趋势时间序列小波预测模型，提高肾综合征出血热(HWRS)发病率的预测步长及精度。方法 对原始序列进行多层小波分解，分解后的各层分别用自回归滑动平均(ARIMA)模型进行预测，将各层的预测值合并作为原序列的最终预测值。结果 小波预测模型4步预测精度为82.45％，而ARIMA建模的4步预测精度为67.97％。结论 用小波预测模型对水平变化趋势的HWRS作短、中期预测是有效、可行的。
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| 关 键 词： | 小波分析 肾综合征出血热 预测 模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-0580(2004)09-1031-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-01-31 |
Model of wavelet - based analysis and forecasting for incidence rate of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome |
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| WU Xue sen,WANG Jie zhen,LIU Yun xia,et al.. Model of wavelet - based analysis and forecasting for incidence rate of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2004, 20(9): 1031-1033 |
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| Authors: | WU Xue sen WANG Jie zhen LIU Yun xia et al. |
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| Affiliation: | WU Xue sen,WANG Jie zhen,LIU Yun xia,et al.Department of Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Shandong University |
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| Abstract: | Objective To improve the forecasting precision and the step-length of the incidence rate for Haemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome(HFRS),this paper proposed the forecasting method of the seasonal non-tendency time series called wavelet forecasting model.Methods By wavelet decomposing,each level series was forecasted by the ARIMA model.The final forecasting results were composed of these levels forecasting values.Results The 4-step forecasting precision of wavelet forecasting model and ARIMA model was 82.45% and 67.97% respectively.Conclusion Wavelet forecasting model was effective and feasible for the seasonal non-tendency HFRS's incidence rate prediction in the short and the middle term. |
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| Keywords: | wavelet analysis HFRS forecasting model |
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