上消化道穿孔患者死亡的危险因素

目的 明确上消化道穿孔患者死亡发生的危险因素.方法 回顾性分析2001年4月～2010年4月连续226例上消化道穿孔患者的病历资料.应用SPSS 13.0软件进行单变量及多变量分析.结果 上消化道穿孔患者死亡的发生率为11.5％.经Logistic回归多变量分析确定了3个独立与死亡相关的变量,即年龄(OR=8.759)、脑血管疾病后遗症(OR=4.554)及入院白蛋白水平(OR=3.269).死亡的预测方程为:P=1/1+e-(-3.536+2.170年龄+1.516脑血管病后道瘟+1.193白蛋白)].结论 上消化道穿孔患者死亡的危险因素为年龄≥70岁、合并有脑血管疾病后遗症及入院白蛋白＜30 g/L.

Risk factors for mortality with upper gastrointestinal perforation

【Objective】The aim of this study was to determine risk factors associated with morality caused by upper gastrointestinal perforation.【Methods】We retrospectively analyzed the data of 226 consecutive patients with upper gastrointestinal perforation from Apr.2001 to Apr.2010.The software of SPSS 13.0 was used for Univariate and multivariate analysis.【Results】The mortality with upper gastrointestinal perforation was 11.5%.Multivariate analysis using logistic regression identified three variables as independent factors associated with the mortality,namely age(OR=8.759),sequelae of cerebrovascular disease(OR=4.554) and level of albumin in admission(OR=3.269).Predictive equation was P=1/1+e-(-3.536+2.170age +1.516sequelae of cerebrovascular disease+1.193 level of albumin)].【Conclusion】Independent risk factors for morality with upper gastrointestinal perforation are age more than or equal to 70 years,sequelae of cerebrovascular disease and level of albumin in admission less than 30 g/L.