基于EPA/BEIR-VI模型的我国居室内氡致肺癌风险估计

目的:估计我国居室内氡导致的居民肺癌归因份额。方法:利用较为权威且适用的EPA/BEIR-VI风险模型，基于我国2015年肺癌死亡率、全死因死亡率以及有代表性的吸烟率和居室内氡平均浓度，预测我国居室内氡浓度水平致肺癌死亡风险。结果:非吸烟男性人群居室内氡致肺癌死亡超额相对危险(ERR)高于吸烟人群，且达到年龄为50岁时...

Risk estimation for lung cancer caused by indoor radon exposure in China based on EPA/BEIR-VI model

Objective To estimate the attribution share of residents''lung cancer caused by indoor Radon.Methods Based on the 2015 lung cancer mortality, all-cause mortality from China together with nationally representative smoking rate and the average indoor radon concentration of 30 Bq/m³, the relatively authoritative and applicable EPA/BEIR-VI risk model was used to predict the lung cancer mortality caused by indoor radon exposure.Results The excess relative risk (ERR) of indoor radon-related lung cancer mortality among the male non-smokers is higher than that of smokers. For the age-group above 50, the male smokers and male non-smokers have the highest ERR values, which were 0.511 and 0.230, respectively. Assuming the exposure incurred starting at age 0 with the same radon concentration, the lifetime risk of men and women non-smokers is higher than that of the smokers of the same gender. The higher the radon concentration, the higher the lifetime risk of lung cancer. Assuming that the radon concentration level in China is 30 Bq/m³, the number of deaths from indoor radon-related lung cancer in 2015 is about 55 512. According to this, about 6.62% of lung cancers are caused by indoor radon exposure. If we assume that radon concentration levels are 40 Bq/m³and 70 Bq/m³ in China, approximately 8.82% and 15.38% of lung cancer deaths can be attributed to indoor radon exposure.Conclusions Indoor radon exposure is an important environmental factor that causes Chinese residential lung cancer. Effective measures should be taken to prevent and control the increasing indoor radon levels. In order to accurately assess risk of lung cancer morality caused by indoor radon, more detailed data such as the indoor radon level in China are needed.