慢性鼻-鼻窦炎伴鼻息肉术后复发的预测模型建立

目的 研究慢性鼻-鼻窦炎伴鼻息肉术后复发的预测模型建立。方法 选择2014年9月至2018年6月在南京大学医学院附属鼓楼医院高淳分院治疗的258例鼻-鼻窦炎伴鼻息肉患者作为模型建立组，建立术后复发的预测模型，选择同期本院收治的134例患者验证模型的区分度和校准度。结果 logistic回归分析结果显示，吸烟史（OR=2.998，95% CI：2.095~4.292）、鼻窦总积分（OR=1.489，95% CI：1.129~1.963）、支气管哮喘（OR=2.186，95% CI：1.688~2.831）、变应性鼻炎（OR=1.740，95% CI：1.403~2.159）、头/面疼痛评分（OR=2.083，95% CI：1.637~2.651）及嗅觉损伤评分（OR=1.879，95% CI：1.509~2.341）是患者术后复发的影响因素（P<0.05）。结论 吸烟史、鼻窦总积分、支气管哮喘、变应性鼻炎、头/面疼痛评分及嗅觉损伤评分等影响因素建立预测模型可有效预测患者术后复发。

The predictive value of postoperative recurrence of chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps

Objective To explore the predictive value of postoperative recurrence of chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps. Methods A total of 258 patients with rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps treated in Gaochun branch of Gulou Hospital Affiliated to Medical College of Nanjing University from September 2014 to June 2018 were selected as the model group, and the prediction model of postoperative recurrence was established. Another 134 patients treated in our hospital in the same period were used to verify the differentiation and calibration of the model. Results Logistic regression analysis showed that smoking history (OR=2.998, 95%CI:2.095~4.292), total score of paranasal sinuses (OR=1.489, 95%CI:1.12~1.963), bronchial asthma (OR=2.186, 95%CI:1.688~2.831), allergic rhinitis (OR=1.740, 95%CI:1.403~2.159), head/facial pain score (OR=2.083, 95%CI:1.637~2.651) and olfactory injury score (OR=1.879, 95% CI:1.509~2.341) were independent influencing factors of postoperative recurrence. Conclusion The prediction models of independent influencing factors such as smoking history, total score of paranasal sinuses, bronchial asthma, allergic rhinitis, head/facial pain score and olfactory injury score can effectively predict postoperative recurrence.