2019年7月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

目的评估2019年7月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果总体上，预计7月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较6月有所下降。 四川省发现Ⅱ型疫苗衍生脊灰病毒病例，病毒具有继续传播的可能。我国媒介伊蚊分布地区处于登革热高发期，本地病例将继续增多，出现小规模本地暴发疫情的风险增加，存在发生较大规模本地暴发疫情的风险。 霍乱进入高发季节，可能出现散发病例或聚集性病例。人腺病毒呼吸道感染在集体单位、医院等场所发生暴发疫情的风险仍存在。 食物中毒和高温中暑处于高发期。 洪涝灾区灾后水源性、食源性等传染病风险将有所上升。 刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情仍将持续发生，但输入我国的风险低。结论需要对Ⅱ型疫苗衍生脊灰病毒病例、登革热予以重点关注，对霍乱、人腺病毒呼吸道感染、食物中毒、高温中暑、地震和洪涝灾害、刚果民主共和国及乌干达埃博拉病毒病予以一般关注。

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,July 2019

ObjectiveTo assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in July, 2019.MethodsAn internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.ResultsGenerally speaking, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be lower in July than in June, 2019. A vaccine derived polio virus type Ⅱ (VDPV2) case was identified in Sichuan province, and further spread is possible. It is the high-incidence season of dengue fever in the area where Aedes exists, and indigenous cases would continue to increase, indicating the increased risk of small outbreaks and the possibility of large scale outbreaks in these areas. It is the high incidence season of cholera, and sporadic cases or clusters might occur. The risk of outbreaks of respiratory infection caused by human adenovirus in places with crowds, such as institutions, schools or hospitals and others, still exists. The incidences of food poisoning and heat stroke would continue to be high. The risk of water-borne and food-borne infectious diseases in the areas affected by flood would increase. Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo would continue; however, the risk of spread to China is low.ConclusionClose attention should be paid to the VDPV2 case identified in Sichuan and dengue fever, and general attention should be paid to cholera, human adenovirus caused respiratory infection, food poisoning, heat stroke, natural disaster, such as earthquake and flood, and EVD in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda.