The Effect of Fracture Recency on Observed 10-Year Fracture Probability: A Registry-Based Cohort Study

FRAX estimates 10-year fracture major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture probability from multiple risk factors. FRAX does not consider prior fracture site or time since fracture. Fracture risk is greater in the initial 2-year post-fracture period (imminent risk), implying that FRAX may underestimate risk in this setting. We used the population-based Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) Program registry to examine the effect of fracture recency and site on incident fracture risk predictions using FRAX. We identified women aged 40 years or older with baseline BMD and FRAX scores. Observed fracture outcomes to 10 years were compared with predicted 10-year fracture probability stratified by prior fracture status: none, recent (<2 years [median 0.3 years]), and remote (≥2 years [median 10.6 years]). For women with recent fractures, we also examined proposed multipliers to adjust FRAX for the effect of fracture recency and site. The cohort comprised 33,465 women aged 40 to 64 years (1897 recent fracture, 2120 remote fracture) and 33,806 women aged ≥65 years (2365 fracture, 4135 remote fracture). Observed fracture probability was consistent with predicted probability in most analyses. In women aged 40 to 64 years, there was a significant effect of recent vertebral and humerus fracture on MOF (observed to predicted 1.61 and 1.48, respectively), but these effects were still lower than the proposed multipliers (2.32 and 1.67, respectively). No significant effect of fracture recency was found after hip or forearm fracture in either age group. Our findings contribute to accumulating evidence of the importance of recent fracture. The effect of fracture recency was not consistent across fracture sites and with a lower magnitude than previously reported. Further quantification of effect size and specificity in additional independent cohorts is warranted to validate and refine recent-fracture multipliers in fracture risk assessment. © 2022 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).