SARS预测的数学模型及其研究进展

在抗击 SARS的斗争中 ,许多科研工作者投入到这场没有硝烟的战斗中 ,并发表了若干研究论文。从这些研究成果中可以发现 ,数学模型已经成为预测 SARS最大病例数量和流行趋势的主要手段之一 ,其预测模型可以分为传染病模型和统计模型。对这些方法进行综述 ,对已经发表的论文进行分析 ,并探讨了今后的研究热点。

Review of Mathematical Model on SARS Forecasting and it's Research Progess

Since the international outbreak of the illness known as severe acute respiratory syndrome(SARS), many researchers engaged in this battle and published many research papers. These works show that mathematical model has become important methodology in forecasting the maximum infected cases of SARS and it's epidemic trend. In this paper, two main mathematical models, the epidemic model and statistical model are reviewed, analysis and discussion on further research area is also given.