基于集中度和圆形分布法的青海省手足口病季节特征分析

目的 分析青海省手足口病的季节性分布规律，为制定有效的防控策略和措施提供科学依据。方法 按月汇总收集2012-2016年中国疾病预防控制信息系统中报告的现住址为青海省的手足口病例数，利用集中度和圆形分布法在Excel 2007中通过编制计算公式来分析青海省手足口病的季节性分布特征。结果 青海省手足口病的发病具有较强的季节性（M=0.613），发病高峰期为5~8月（r=0.610，a=181.322°，s=57.004°）。采用Watson-Williams检验对各年数据平均角比较，差异有统计学意义（F=31.492，P<0.001），即各年度发病高峰出现的时间及长短不全相同。结论 青海省手足口病具有季节高发性，应在高发期来临前尽早落实各项防控措施，减少重症病例和暴发疫情的发生。

Analysis on seasonal distribution characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease in Qinghai Province based on the concentration and circular distribution method

Objective To analyze the seasonal distribution of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Qinghai Province, so as to provide the scientific basis evidence for the establishment of prevention and controlling strategies of HFMD. Methods The HFMD incident cases who lived in Qinghai Province were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention by month during 2012-2016. We used the concentration and circular distribution method to depict the characteristics of HFMD incidence in Qinghai Province. Results There was a significant seasonal periodicity in the incidence of HFMD in Qinghai Province (M=0.613), and the peak of incidence was generally happened from May to August every year (r=0.610,a=181.322°, s=57.004°). The results from Watson-Williams analysis showed that the average angle of peak time was changed every year (F=31.492, P<0.001), which indicated a changeable peak time of HFMD incidence. Conclusions We found a statistically significant seasonal periodicity in the incidence of HFMD in Qinghai Province. Therefore, the prevention and control strategies should be carried out before the high-risk season as soon as possible, which would be efficiently reduce the occurrence of severe cases and prevent the possibility of epidemic outbreak.