1993年至2012年江苏省启东市社区人群肺癌发病和死亡趋势分析

  目的  通过对江苏省启东市1993年至2012年的肺癌患者登记数据进行分析，了解本地区肺癌流行现状、疾病负担和可能的原因。  方法  运用Joinpoint回归分析计算江苏省启东市肺癌发病趋势和死亡趋势，使用年龄-时期-队列模型，分别评估年龄因素和暴露因素对于肺癌发病趋势和死亡趋势的影响。  结果  江苏省启东市肺癌粗发病率和标化发病率均呈上升趋势，肺癌粗死亡率和标化死亡率也呈上升趋势。年龄-时期-队列模型发现，随着人群年龄的增加，肺癌的发病风险和死亡风险也逐渐增大；出生队列中，越晚出生的人群肺癌发生和死亡的风险越高，其中女性的发病风险和死亡风险上升速度均高于男性。  结论  江苏省启东市肺癌的发病率和死亡率逐年上升，人群肺癌危险因素的暴露逐渐增加，女性人群和年龄≥70岁老年人群的发病率及死亡率增长明显是近年来江苏省启东市肺癌流行特征。 

Incidence and mortality analysis of lung cancer among residents in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1993 to 2012

  Objective  To determine the prevalence, disease burden, and possible causes of lung cancer.Population-based lung cancerregistration data collected from 1993 to 2012 were used to analyze the lung cancer epidemic status in Qidong City.  Methods  Joinpointregression was used to calculate the trend of incidence and mortality for lung cancer.Age-period-cohort model was used to assess theeffects of age and exposure on the incidence and mortality rates.  Results  Upward trends were observed both for the incidence andmortality rates of lung cancer.The risk of incidence and mortality increased with age.According to the cohort effect, the risk of lungcancer increased with recent birth dates.Women had higher risk than men.  Conclusion  The incidence and mortality rates of pulmonary neoplasms have annually increased, and the exposure to risk factors for lung cancer gradually increases.Among the communitypopulation in Qidong City, people over 70 years belong to the high-risk groups.