北京市2005-2015年艾滋病抗病毒治疗患者生存及其影响因素

目的 分析北京市2005-2015年间艾滋病抗病毒治疗患者的生存情况及其影响因素，评估北京市免费艾滋病抗病毒治疗效果。方法 采用回顾性队列研究方法，利用艾滋病综合防治信息系统中2005-2015年进入队列的病人数据资料进行分析，应用寿命表法计算研究对象的生存率、利用乘积极限法计算研究对象截止观察终点的平均生存时间、采用COX比例风险回归模型分析研究对象生存时间的影响因素。结果 共纳入研究对象10 077例，平均生存时间是131.24个月（130.48~132.00个月），总病死率为0.45/100人年，治疗1、5、10年累计生存率分别为99.25%、98.22%、96.01%。经多因素调整后分析发现，患者开始治疗时的年龄、感染途径、基线CD4⁺T淋巴细胞计数分组为生存时间的影响因素（均有P<0.05）。结论 北京市免费艾滋病抗病毒治疗患者病死率低，生存率高，治疗效果好；影响北京市免费艾滋病抗病毒治疗患者生存时间的因素为开始治疗时年龄、感染途径、基线CD4⁺T淋巴细胞计数（均有P<0.05）。

Analysis of the survival conditions of HIV/AIDS patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Beijing in 2005-2015 and the related factors

Objective To analyze the survival rates of HIV/AIDS patients receiving antiretroviral therapy and related factors,and evaluate the effect of ART in Beijing in 2005-2015. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the data collected from the National HAART reporting system during 2005-2015. Life table method was applied to calculate the survival proportion; Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the average survival time at the end of observation; COX proportion hazard regression model was performed to identify the factors related to survival time. Results A total number of 10 077 cases was selected; the average survival time was 131.24 months(130.48-132.00), and the total case fatality ratio was 0.45/100, and the 1, 5 and 10 actuarial survival rates were 99.25%, 98.22% and 96.01% after ART. Multivariate COX regression showed the related factors were transmission route, patients'age and the CD4+T cell counts when antiretroviral therapy began. Conclusions The antiretroviral therapy resulted in low fatality rate and high survival rate among HIV/AIDS patients and was significantly effective in Beijing; the related factors were transmission route, patients' age and CD4+T cell counts when antiretroviral therapy began.