Decreasing serum alpha-fetoprotein levels in predicting poor prognosis of acute hepatic failure in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Background: Background: We carried out a study to predict the prognosis of acute hepatic failure in patients with chronic hepatitis B. Methods: We studied 25 consecutive patients with severe acute hepatitis. Severe acute hepatitis was defined as the development of acute hepatitis with a total serum bilirubin level of more than 15 mg/dl, prolonged prothrombin time (PT) of more than 5 s, and hepatic encephalopathy (HE). All patients were assessed for King's criteria. Positivity for King's criteria was defined as PT more than 100 s, or any three of the following: (age < 10 years or >40 years; cryptogenic or drug-induced hepatitis; jaundice for more than 7 days before the onset of HE; PT > 50 s; and serum bilirubin > 17.5 mg/dl). All but 1 patient had serial serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels measured every 1–2 weeks. Results: Eleven of 17 patients who died during the study met the King's criteria, whereas none of the surviving patients met the criteria. The sensitivity was 64.7% and the specificity, 100% for King's criteria in predicting a poor prognosis. In 16 of the 17 deceased patients, the AFP levels were reduced while their jaundice increased (sensitivity, 94.1%; specificity, 87.5%). All 17 deceased patients met the King's criteria and/or had reduced AFP levels while their jaundice increased (sensitivity, 100%; specificity, 87.5%). Conclusions: Our observations suggest that the combined use of follow-up AFP levels and King's criteria is helpful in predicting the poor prognosis of severe acute hepatitis superimposed on chronic hepatitis B. Received: August 20, 2001 / Accepted: December 27, 2001