| 应用ARIMA模型预测肺结核报告发病率的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘继恒,;白春林,;孙要武,;张皓,;贺圆圆.应用ARIMA模型预测肺结核报告发病率的研究[J].中国热带医学,2014(9):1067-1070. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘继恒 ;白春林 ;孙要武 ;张皓 ;贺圆圆 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]宜昌市疾病预防控制中心,湖北宜昌443000; [2]佳木斯大学,黑龙江佳木斯161006 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的探讨ARIMA模型在宜昌市肺结核预测方面的应用,为进一步采取预防控制措施提供科学依据。方法基于宜昌市1997~2013年肺结核发病率的数据建立一个原始时间序列,对1998~2013年的发病进行预测,并与实际发病进行比较。结果最终得出ARIMA(1,0,1)(2,1,0)12为最优模型,实际发病与预测值及其95%置信区间基本一致,模型的拟合效果较好,可以对2014年发病率进行预测。结论肺结核具有很高的发病率,ARIMA模型能较好的模拟肺结核发病在时间序列的变化趋势,为制定防控措施提供科学的依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 肺结核 ARIMA模型 发病趋势 预测 研究 |
Application of ARIMA model in prediction of tuberculosis incidence |
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| Institution: | LIU Ji-heng, BAI Chun-lin, SUN Yao-wu,ZHANG Hao,HE Yuan-yuan (1. Yichang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yichang 443000, Hubei, P.R. China ; 2.Jiamuzi University, Jiamusi 161006,Heilongjiang, P.R. China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To explore the application of ARIMA model in prediction of tuberculosis incidence in Yichang City. Methods Based on data of tuberculosis incidence in Yichang city from 1997 to 2013, an original time series were established to predict the incidence of tuberculosis from 1998 to 2014. Predicted value and actual value of tuberculosis incidence were compared. Results ARIMA（1,0,1） （2,1,0）12 was the optimal model and well fitted. The predicted value and the actual value were basically identical. Conclusion Tuberculosis had high incidence, ARIMA model could simulate the incidence trend of time series better and provide scientific evidence for control measures. |
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| Keywords: | Tuberculosis ARIMA model Incidence Prediction Research |
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