A model for probabilistic health impact assessment of exposure to food chemicals |
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| Authors: | Hilko van der Voet,Gerie W.A.M. van der Heijden,Peter M.J. Bos,Sieto Bosgra,Polly E. Boon,Stefan D. Muri,Beat J. Brü schweiler |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Biometris, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 100, 6700 AC Wageningen, Netherlands;2. RIKILT – Institute of Food Safety, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Netherlands;3. National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands;4. Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, Netherlands;5. Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH), Zürich, Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | A statistical model is presented extending the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model of van der Voet and Slob [van der Voet, H., Slob, W., 2007. Integration of probabilistic exposure assessment and probabilistic hazard characterisation. Risk Analysis, 27, 351–371]. The aim is to characterise the health impact due to one or more chemicals present in food causing one or more health effects. For chemicals with hardly any measurable safety problems we propose health impact characterisation by margins of exposure. In this probabilistic model not one margin of exposure is calculated, but rather a distribution of individual margins of exposure (IMoE) which allows quantifying the health impact for small parts of the population. A simple bar chart is proposed to represent the IMoE distribution and a lower bound (IMoEL) quantifies uncertainties in this distribution. It is described how IMoE distributions can be combined for dose-additive compounds and for different health effects. Health impact assessment critically depends on a subjective valuation of the health impact of a given health effect, and possibilities to implement this health impact valuation step are discussed. Examples show the possibilities of health impact characterisation and of integrating IMoE distributions. The paper also includes new proposals for modelling variable and uncertain factors describing food processing effects and intraspecies variation in sensitivity. |
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| Keywords: | ADI, acceptable daily intake BMD, benchmark dose BMDL, benchmark dose lower bound CED, critical effect dose ChE, cholinesterase DALY, disability adjusted life years Df, degrees of freedom DW, disability weight GM, geometric mean GSD, geometric standard deviation HIA, health impact assessment HIC, health impact criterion ICED, individual critical effect dose IEXP, individual exposure IMoE, individual margin of exposure IMoEL, individual margin of exposure lower bound IMoEp1, individual margin of exposure first percentile IPRA, integrated probabilistic risk assessment LI, low impact MI, moderate impact MoE, margin of exposure PHIA, probabilistic health impact assessment PoCE, probability of critical exposure RPF, relative potency factor SD, standard deviation SI, severe impact TEF, toxic equivalence factor YLD, years lost due to disability YLL, years of life lost WHO, World Health Organization |
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