2001年北京地区癌症死亡预测

利用长期进行的恶性肿瘤登记报告资料，对北京地区１９８０－１９９１年恶性肿瘤死亡率变化进行了动态分析，找出时间序列变化的规律，利用灰色系统理论模型对北京地区２００１年癌症流行趋势做出预测，为癌症预防下控制策略、措施的研究提供科学依据。

Trend and Prediction of Cancer Mortality in Beijing, China, During 1980-2001

Mortality data gathered throngh registration system were analyzed systematically to predict the trend of cancer mortality.A grey system model was established to forecast the epidemic trend for cancer mortality of Beijing in 2001.In result,the mortality of cancer in Beijing will in-crease annually upto 2001.The composition of various malignant tumer will charge notably.Rapid increase will occure in lung cancer.Liver cancer and colon rectal cancer will aslo increase. Cncers of esophagus and cervix uteri will steadly decline. Stomach cancer begin to decrease. These infor-mation on the change of cancer mortality will provide scientific reference for the study of cancer prevention and control in Beijing.