| Abstract: | There is growing interest in the theory that HIV is only a co-factor in the epidemiology of AIDS--a perspective with profound implications for models designed to forecast the future of the AIDS epidemic. Potential input variables for such models include age distribution, initial HIV prevalence, mortality, fertility, work status, migration, intravenous drug users, professional blood donors, transfused blood receivers, homosexuals, commercial sex workers, infected asymptomatic stage duration, number of partners, and state of pregnancy. Models would be of more use to policy makers if they went beyond estimations of eventual epidemic size to evaluate the magnitude of direct and indirect costs to the economy, health sector, and families. An important function of any model should be to assist countries to decide how to spend limited resources. Needed are both standard models to produce simple extrapolations for policy makers and decision makers and more complex models for pinpointing appropriate HIV/AIDS preventive interventions. |
