三种心脏外科术后急性肾功能衰竭预测模型的临床应用

目的 分析克利夫兰急性肾功能衰竭评分(Cleveland ARF Score)、心脏术后急性肾功能不全评分(acute kidney injury prediction following elective cardiac surgery,AKICS)、简易肾功能指数评分(Simplified Renal Index,SRI score)三种模型在预测心脏术后发生急性肾功能衰竭中的作用,评价三种模型的预测价值.方法 2009年6月至2010年5月,连续收集了行心脏手术并有完整资料的患者504例纳入研究,分别使用Cleveland、AKICS、SRI评分系统进行校准度和分辨力的评价,分析并比较三种评分系统模型对术后发生急性肾功能衰竭的预测价值.结果 504例中术后需要肾脏替代治疗(renal re-placement therapy,RRT) 16例(3.17％),其中6例死亡(37.5％)；发生肾功能不全27例(5.36％),经治疗后肾功能恢复正常.应用AKICS模型术后需要RRT治疗11例(2.70％),发生肾功能不全25例(6.13％),模型全组预计发生率3.77％.Cleveland评分术后需要RRT治疗16例(3.17％),发生肾功能不全27例(5.36％),模型全组预计发生率0.99％.SRI评分术后需要RRT治疗15例(3.21％),发生肾功能不全24例(5.13％).与预测结果比较,AKICS模型表现出较好的校准度(P=0.922,x2=0.162),Cleveland模型校准度差异有统计学意义(P=0.026,x2=15.644).Cleveland Score、AKICS、SRI 预测术后急性肾功能衰竭需行RRT治疗的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.695、0.732、0.759,术后肾功能不全的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.711、0.753、0.779.结论 结果显示,SRI模型预测术后RRT治疗及肾功能不全的实际危险度相关性较好.AKICS模型预测术后肾功能不全的实际危险度相关性较好.SRI模型的校准度及分辨能力均较好,可能较适用于评估患者的相对危险度.AKICS模型对于研究设计及选择治疗方案有一定使用价值.

Evaluation of three clinical tools for predicting acute renal failure after cardiac surgery

Objective Acute renal failure (ARF) requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) was reported in 0.33％to 9.5％ patients after cardiac surgery.This study was designed to assess the clinical usefulness and accuracy of 3 clinical tools for the prediction of ARF after cardiac surgery in Chinese patients.Methods Five hundred and four eligible patients with complete clinical data in our institution received prospective assessment for RRT and acute kidney injury (AKI) between June,2009 and November,2010.The clinical tools used were Cleveland ARF Score,acute kidney injury prediction following elective cardiac surgery(AKICS) and Simplified Renal Index(SRI).Hosmer—Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to estimate the calibration.Discrimination was determined with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under a ROC curve (AUC).Results Follow-up was completed in all 504 patients.The overall incidence of postoperative RRT was 3.17％(16/504) with a mortality of 37.5％,and the incidence of AKI was 5.36％ ( 27/504 ).Discrimination for the prediction of RRT and AKI was good for SRI measured with AUROCs:0.759 (95％ CI,0.643-0.874) for RRT and 0.773 (95％ CI,0.677-0.868 ) for AKI.SRI score performed better in terms of discrimination than Cleveland ARF score and AKICS in our study,which did not consist with results reported by other centers.Conclusion SRI scoring system is the most useful among three tools for predicting postoperative RRT and should be the first choice in Chinese patients for whom a cardiac surgery is planned.It can also be used in predicting the composite end point of AKI with an extended application in patients at risk for postoperative kidney dysfunction.