岷县当归产量预报模型研究

目的:建立岷县当归药材产量预报模型,为相关部门和机构提供当归产量预报信息。方法:根据当归的生育期和生理特性,以1995～2009年岷县当归产量统计数据、成药期各旬气象资料作为研究基础,采用多项式预报法,建立岷县当归产量预报模型。结果:岷县当归产量预报模型的平均精度达97.2%,基本满足产量模拟预报的要求。结论:建立的当归药材气象预报模型有较高的准确度,可提供较为准确的当归产量预报信息,为我国药材生产过程中的产量预报提供方法学参考。

Study on Prediction Model of Angelicae sinensis Yield Per Unit in Min County

Objective: To establish a prediction model of Angelicae sinensis yield per unit in Min County,and the forecasting information can be provided to correlated department and organization.Methods: With the basis of the Angelicae sinensis yield statistics in Min County from 1995 to 2009 and weather data of development phase of each ten days,polynomial forecasting modeling was used and the stimulation forecasting of Angelicae sinensis yield in Min County was carried out.Results: The results showed that the average accuracy of prediction model was reached to 97.2%,which basically met the demand for yield prediction.Conclusion: The prediction model of Angelicae sinensis yield per unit in Min County has good accuracy and relatively correct forecasting information about Angelicae sinensis yield,which provides methodology and important references for dynamic forecasting in the progress of Chinese medicinal materials production.