Modelling the optimal target age group for seasonal influenza vaccination in Japan |
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| Institution: | 1. Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan;2. Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium;3. Respiratory Diseases Department, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom;4. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, W2 1PG, United Kingdom;5. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;1. Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States;2. Department of Family Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, United States;3. Department of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, United States;4. Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, Seoul, Republic of Korea;1. University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania;2. Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania;3. Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, Seoul, South Korea;4. Department of Mathematics, University of Tulsa, Tulsa, Oklahoma;1. Department of Health Care Policy and Health Economics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1, Tennoudai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058577, Japan;2. Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Meiji Pharmaceutical University, 2-522-1 Noshio, Kiyose, Tokyo 2048588, Japan;3. Social Pharmacy and Regulatory Science, Showa Pharmaceutical University, 3-3165, Higashi-Tamagawagakuen, Machidashi, Tokyo 194-8543, Japan;4. School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 8528523, Japan;5. Yokohama City Institute of Public Health, 7-1, Tomiokahigashi 2-chom, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama City 2360051, Japan;1. Immunisation and Countermeasures Division, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK;2. Imperial College Faculty of Medicine, London SW7 2AZ, UK;3. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK;1. Department of Pharmacy Administration and Clinical Pharmacy, School of Pharmacy, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, China;2. Center for Drug Safety and Policy Research, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, China;3. Shaanxi Center for Health Reform and Development Research, Xi’an 710061, China;4. Department of Non-communicable Chronic Disease Control and Prevention, Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi’an 710054, China |
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| Abstract: | BackgroundIn Japan, the current influenza vaccination programme is targeting older individuals. On the other hand, epidemics of influenza are likely to be mainly driven by children. In this study, we consider the most cost-effective target age group for a seasonal influenza vaccination programme in Japan.MethodsWe constructed a deterministic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with data from the 2012/13 to 2014/15 influenza seasons in Japan. Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used for parameter estimation. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted from public health care payer’s perspective.ResultsA scenario targeting children under 15 was expected to reduce the number of cases 6,382,345 compared to the current strategy. A scenario targeting elderly population (age over 49 years) was expected to reduce the number of cases 693,206. The children targeted scenario demonstrated negative ICER (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio) value. On the other hand, elderly targeted scenario demonstrated higher ICER value than the willingness to pay (50,000 USD/QALY).ConclusionsA vaccination programme which targets children under 15 is predicted to have much larger epidemiological impact than those targeting elderly. |
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| Keywords: | Influenza Vaccination policy Mathematical model Cost-effectiveness analysis Japan |
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