Uncertainty in Fitted Estimates of Apparent in Vivo Metabolic Constants for Chloroform

It has become common practice to rely on fitted estimates ofapparent in vivo metabolic constants (e.g., V_max and K_M) inparameterization of PBPK models. Yet, quantitative estimatesof precision in these fitted parameters are not routinely reported.Such information is needed to assess the reliability of modelpredictions. The purpose of this study was to assess the precisionin estimates of V_max and K_M for chloroform, accounting for boththe statistical uncertainties in parameter estimates from individualdata sets and any additional uncertainty due to differencesin the parameter estimates derived from various experiments.Joint confidence regions for V_max and K_M from each experiment,generated using maximum likelihood techniques, were used toevaluate these questions. Three previously published data setswere considered. Estimates of V_max and K_M obtained from thesedata sets differed more than could be explained as a consequenceof a limited number of observations, measurement error, or stochasticerror. Issues associated with the use of maximum likelihoodtechniques to estimate joint confidence regions, the estimationof metabolic constants from individual experiments within agas uptake study versus the full data set, the degree of overlapin the joint confidence regions for metabolic constants obtainedfrom separate data sets, and the implications for risk assessmentare discussed.