空气SO2和NOx污染及灰色动态预测

目的：分析并预测上海火车站（上海站）地区空气SO2和NOx污染状况，方法：运用灰色系统方法并根据上海站大气监测点1988－1999年空气SO2和NOx的监测数据建立灰色动态预测模型并进行预测，结果：1988－1999年上海站地区空气SO2和NOx污染水平逐年下降，2000－2002年预测SO2平均浓度一，四季度为0．0216mg/m^3,二，三季度为 0．0142mg/m^3,预测NOx平均浓度一，四季度为0．0706mg/m^3，二，三季度为0．0492mg/m^3，结论：灰色模型适合上海站地区空气SO2和NOx的污染预测。

Air Pollution by SO2 and NOx and Their Grey Dynamic Forecast

ve To analyze and forecast the air pollution by SO2 and NOx in area of Shanghai railway station. Methods Based on the data on concentrations of SO2 and NOx in the air of the monitoring locations in area of Shanghai railway station during 1988~1999, using grey system mode, the model of grey dynamic forecast was es-tablished and was applied for forecasting the concentrations of SO2 and NOx in air during 2000~2002. Results During 1988?1999, the concentrations of SOz and NO, in air of area of Shanghai railway station had declined grad-ually. The forecasted average concentration of SO2 was 0.021 6 mg/m3 in the 1st and 4th quarters, 0.014 2 mg/m3 in the 2nd and 3rd quarters respectively. The forecasted average concentration of NOx was 0.070 6 mg/m3 in the 1st and 4th quarters, 0.049 2 mg/ m3 in the 2nd and 3rd quarters during 2000~2002 respectively. Conclusion This grey model was suitable for forecasting air pollution by SO2 and NOx in area of Shanghai railway station.