基于南通市人口数据的Elandt-Johnson模型法完全寿命表推算研究

目的 探索Elandt-Johnson模型法推算完全寿命表的效果。方法 以南通市2020年1月1日至12月31日年龄别死亡率为实例构建简略寿命表和实际完全寿命表,采用Elandt-Johnson模型将简略寿命表推算成完全寿命表,将推算的完全寿命表死亡率、尚存人数等指标与实际完全寿命表进行拟合,并比较推算完全寿命表和实际完全寿命表的期望寿命。 结果 采用Elandt-Johnson模型推算的年龄别死亡率、尚存人数与实际年龄别死亡率、尚存人数拟合度较好,决定系数分别为0.9328、0.9050,由推算的尚存人数计算的期望寿命(83.03岁)与实际期望寿命(83.23岁)非常接近。结论 Elandt-Johnson模型可以将简略寿命表推算出较准确的完全寿命表,可用于南通市完全寿命表的推算。

Calculation of complete life table by Elandt-Johnson model based on the population data of Nantong City

Objective To explore the effect of calculating complete life table by Elandt-Johnson model. Methods Abridged and complete life tables were built with data from January 1^st to December 31^th of 2020 in Nantong City. The complete life table was calculated from abridged life table by Elandt-Johnson model. Indices such as the calculated mortality and the number of surviving people were fitted into the actual complete life table, and the life expectancy of the calculating and actual complete life table was compared. Results The degree of fitting of the calculated age mortality and surviving people compared with those from actual complete life table was higher using the Elandt-Johnson model, and the determination coefficients were 0.9328 and 0.9050, respectively. The life expectancy calculated(83.03 years)was very close to the actual life expectancy(83.23 years). Conclusion The Elandt-Johnson model can be used to calculate the abridged life table into a more accurate complete life table, and it’s suitable for such data of Nantong City.