中国肾综合征出血热流行特征及时空分析模型进展

肾综合征出血热（HFRS）是一种由汉坦病毒引起的以发热、出血、充血、低血压休克及肾脏损害为主要临床特征的鼠传自然疫源性疾病，人主要通过接触鼠的排泄物、分泌物等方式感染HFRS。HFRS流行特征具有显著的人群差异、地理异质和季节消长特点，这些典型特征与宿主动物栖息环境和人类活动等因素密不可分。全球每年HFRS报告发病人数约15万~20万，我国病例数占全球的70%~90%，是遭受HFRS危害最严重的国家。本文详细综述了我国HFRS流行特征、传播影响因素以及相关生态学研究的模型与方法进展，以期了解我国HFRS的三间分布特征及传播的潜在影响因素，有助于开展HFRS疾病调查监测和预防控制工作。

Epidemiological characteristics and the development of spatiotemporal analysis models on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease of natural infectious focus caused by Hantavirus (HV) with clinical characteristics as fever, hemorrhage, hyperemia, hypotensive shock and renal damage. Through contacting the excreta or secretion of infected rats, human may get infected. The epidemiological characteristics of HFRS are significantly different in terms of population differences, geographical heterogeneity and seasonal variation, which are all closely related to the habitat of host animals and human productive activities. The reported number of HFRS is about 150 000 to 200 000 each year worldwide, and China accounted for 70%-90% of the total reported cases standing the most seriously infected country. In this study, we reviewed the epidemiological characteristics and the influencing factors of HFRS as well as the models and methods used in relevant ecological studies, in order to understand the distribution of time, regional and population and potential influencing factors on the transmission of HFRS better, so as to improve the strategies on investigation, monitoring, prevention and control of the diseases.