ARIMA乘积季节模型和LSTM深度神经网络对石家庄市手足口病疫情预测效果的比较

  目的   运用自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average model, ARIMA)乘积季节模型和长期短期记忆网络(long short term memory, LSTM)对石家庄市手足口病(hand, foot and mouth disease, HFMD)的发病趋势进行预测, 为疫情防控工作提供理论依据。   方法   利用Eviews 8.0和python 3.7.1软件对2013年1月-2018年5月石家庄市HFMD逐月发病数据分别建立ARIMA乘积季节模型和LSTM神经网络, 以2018年6月-2019年5月的发病资料检验模型预测精度, 最后应用模型预测2019年6月-2019年8月的月发病数。   结果   最优模型ARIMA(1, 0, 0)×(1, 1, 2)₁₂和LSTM神经网络外推预测2018年6月-12月的MAPE分别为22.14和10.03, 而外推预测2018年6月至2019年5月的MAPE分别为43.84和25.26, 提示LSTM神经网络的拟合效果和预测精度优于ARIMA模型, 预测结果与实际情况基本一致。   结论   LSTM神经网络对石家庄市HFMD发病趋势的拟合度和预测效果较好, 能够为手足口病疫情的预测预警工作提供指导。

Comparison on predictive capacity of ARIMA model and LSTM model for incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease in Shijiazhuang

Objective To predict the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Shijiazhuang using the multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)and long short term memory(LSTM)model,lay theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of HFMD.Methods Multiple seasonal ARIMA model and LSTM model were established separately by using Eviews 8.0 and python 3.7.1 according to the data of monthly incidence of HFMD from January 2013 to May 2018 in Shijiazhuang,and the data from June 2018 to May 2019 were used to verify the prediction precision of model.Finally,the monthly incidence from June to August 2019 was predicted.Results Based on the monthly incidence from January 2013 to May 2018,the optimal models,ARIMA(1,0,0)×(1,1,2)12 and LSTM model were established.Mean absolute percentage of error(MAPE)of ARIMA and LSTM model were 22.14 and 10.03 respectively based on the monthly incidence from June to December 2018,while MAPE of ARIMA and LSTM model were 43.84 and 25.26 respectively based on the monthly incidence from June 2018 to May 2019.These results indicated that LSTM model was superior to ARIMA model in model fitting degree and predicting accuracy,which was relatively consistent with the actual situation.Conclusions LSTM model is able to fit and predict the incidence trend of HFMD well in Shijiazhuang.It can provide guidance to HFMD epidemic prediction and alerting.