2009-2018年汕头市手足口病流行特征与时空聚集性

  目的   分析汕头市2009-2018年手足口病的流行病学特征及时空分布特征, 为制定有效的手足口病防控策略提供科学依据。   方法   收集汕头市2009-2018年手足口病疫情数据, 采用空间自相关分析和时空扫描统计量相结合的方法对手足口病发病情况进行时空聚集性分析。   结果   2009-2018年汕头市累计报告手足口病病例77 814例, 年均发病率为143.52/10万。发病人群以3岁以下散居儿童为主, 主高峰集中在4-7月, 次高峰在9-11月。全局和局部空间自相关分析结果显示, 手足口病在汕头市街道(镇)尺度上呈空间正相关, 全市有25个街道(镇)为“热点”区域, 形成手足口病的高发区域。时空扫描分析结果显示, 2009-2018年汕头市手足口病有2个聚类区, 其中1类聚类区(RR=3.56, LLR=9 444.26, P < 0.001)是以同益街道、新福街道为中心点, 半径为10.05 km的区域, 波及中心城区25个街道(镇)。   结论   2009-2018年汕头市手足口病在中心城区呈现明显的时空聚集性, 应在流行季节和高发街道加强重点人群的防控工作, 降低手足口病发病水平。

Epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering analysis of hand,foot and mouth disease in Shantou City

  Objective   To explore the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of hand, foot and mouth disease(HFMD) from 2009 to 2018 in Shantou City, as a means of providing a scientific basis for conducting effective control strategies.   Methods   The epidemic data of HFMD from 2009 to 2018 was collected. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal scan statistics were used to analyse the clustering of HFMD in time and space.   Results   A total of 77 814 cases of HFMD were reported in Shantou City from 2009 to 2018. The annual average incidence was 143.52/100 000. Children under three years old comprised the HFMD high-risk population.The major HFMD-incidence peak period was from April to July, and the secondary incidence peak period was from September to November. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis demonstrated that positive spatial autocorrelation was observed at street(town) level. Twenty-five streets(towns) of Shantou City were hotspot areas, indicating the high incidence of HFMD. Two clustering was found by time-space scanning from 2009-2018, and the Class 1 clustering area(RR=3.56, LLR=9 444.26, P < 0.001) centred on Tongyi and Xinfu street, with a radius of 10.05 km, involving 25 streets(towns) of Shantou City.   Conclusions   A significant feature of spatiotemporal clustering was shown in the HFMD incidence in Shantou City from 2009 to 2018. Effective prevention and control measures should be undertaken for the high-risk population in high-prevalence area and season to decrease the incidence of HFMD in Shantou City.