群体免疫作为新型冠状病毒肺炎防控策略可行性分析

新型冠状病毒肺炎（新冠肺炎）具有传播快、防控难的特点。仅4个月时间,新冠肺炎快速传播到全球200多个国家或地区。中国采取了及早发现病例、确定密切接触者并实施14 d隔离医学观察、全国范围内倡导居家2周以上等围堵策略,成功地控制了新冠肺炎流行。英国曾一度采用群体免疫策略,让人群自然感染新冠肺炎,逐渐形成免疫屏障。本文分析了围堵与自然感染形成群体免疫两种策略在未来应对新冠肺炎疫情中的应用,并提出了平衡疫情防控与经济社会发展的常态化策略。

Analysis of application of herd immunity as a control strategy for COVID-19

Novel coronavirus spreads very fast and is not easy to control. It has spread over 200 countries or territories. China has taken action to implement containment strategies, including active COVID-19 case finding, tracing, and 14-day quarantine of close contacts, and home isolation of 1.39 billion of people countrywide for at least 2 weeks, etc. The combination of these strategies has brought the epidemic under control in China. The United Kingdom had deliberately not implemented containment measures for a while, instead opting to allow herd immunity strategy to develop over time. This is a "do-nothing" strategy whereby the virus is allowed to move through communities naturally until certain proportion of people has been infected, and the epidemic ends without intervention. The author assesses containment strategies versus this herd immunity strategy in real-world application to the COVID-19 epidemic. The author suggests an innovative strategy to balance controlling the epidemic and preventing impediment to economic and social development.