2008—2016年广西居民恶性肿瘤死亡状况及趋势

  目的  了解2008—2016年广西居民恶性肿瘤的死亡状况及时间变化趋势，为制定恶性肿瘤防治策略提供科学依据。  方法  采集死因监测系统中广西7个国家监测点居民因恶性肿瘤死亡的数据，计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率、构成比；用Joinpoint模型对恶性肿瘤死亡率数据进行时间趋势分析。  结果  2008—2016年广西居民恶性肿瘤粗死亡率为128.60/10万，标化死亡率为129.80/10万。标化死亡率男女比为1.94:1，城乡比为1.25:1。恶性肿瘤死亡率随年龄增长呈上升趋势。死因顺位前5位依次为肝癌、肺癌、胃癌、结直肠癌和鼻咽癌。Joinpoint模型分析显示，2008—2016年恶性肿瘤死亡率总体呈先上升后缓慢下降趋势，2008—2010年呈上升趋势，年度变化百分比（annual percent change，APC）为23.38%，2011—2016年存在缓慢下降趋势（APC=-0.62%）。男性恶性肿瘤死亡率呈先上升后缓慢下降趋势，女性死亡率相对稳定；城市居民恶性肿瘤死亡率呈持续上升趋势；农村呈先上升后缓慢下降趋势。男女和城乡的肺癌（APC=4.73%）死亡率和结直肠癌（APC=6.31%）死亡率均呈持续上升趋势。肝癌、胃癌、鼻咽癌死亡率保持相对稳定。  结论  广西居民恶性肿瘤死亡率仍处于全国较高水平，城市居民恶性肿瘤死亡率及肺癌、结直肠癌死亡率呈持续上升趋势。

The status and trends of cancer deaths in Guangxi,from 2008 to 2016

  Objective  To observe the mortality and trend of malignant cancers in Guangxi from 2008 to 2016, so as to provide evidence for formulating strategies for preventing and treating malignant cancers.  Methods  Data on deaths from malignant cancers in Guangxi residents was collected from seven national monitoring sites in death cause monitoring system. The crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, constituent ratio were calculated. The trend of cancer mortality was analyzed with Joinpoint model.  Results  The crude mortality rate of cancer was 128.60/100 000, and the standardized mortality rate was 129.80/100 000 in Guangxi from 2008 to 2016. The standardized male-female mortality ratio was 1.94:1 and the urban-rural ratio was 1.25:1. The mortality of malignant cancers had increased with age. The top five causes of death were liver cancer, lung cancer, stomach cancer, colorectal cancer, and nasopharyngeal cancer. Joinpoint model analysis revealed that the mortality rate of malignant cancers had increased first and then decreased slowly from 2008 to 2016. It had a tendency to increase from 2008 to 2010, with the annual percent change (APC) of 23.38%, but showed a slowly declined trend from 2011 to 2016 (APC=-0.62%). The mortality rate of cancer had increased first and then decreased slowly in males, but it changed not obviously in females. The mortality rate of cancer showed an increasing trend in urban areas, and in rural areas it rose first and then slowly declined. The mortality rate of lung cancer (APC=4.73%) and colorectal cancer (APC=6.31%) showed an increased trend, for both male and female in urban and rural areas. The mortality rates of liver cancer, stomach cancer, and nasopharyngeal cancer were relatively stable.  Conclusion  The mortality rate caused by cancer in Guangxi is still at a relatively high level in China. Particularly, the mortality rate of urban residents and the mortality of lung cancer and colorectal cancer shows an increased trend.