自回归移动平均模型评价社区卫生服务连续性

目的对我国城市社区家庭医生签约服务模式的服务连续性进行评价。方法对签约、电子病历与一般就诊人群的门诊就诊人次拟合时间序列自回归移动平均(ARMA)模型并做出预测。结果玉林社区卫生服务中心签约人群的门诊量明显上升。增长速度远高于一般就诊人群。根据签约病人门诊人次时间序列模型预测，签约人群的门诊人次仍将呈现明显的增长态势。人均门诊人次的增长已成为签约人群门诊服务量增长的主要原因。结论城市社区家庭医生签约服务可为签约居民提供个性化的卫生服务，是适合我国社区卫生服务实际情况的一种医疗保健模式。

Study on using ARMA model to evaluate the continuity of community health services

Objective To evaluate the continuity of community health services of community family physician model in city. Methods To analyze the visit to the community health cent re (CHC) among three kinds of outpatients-the patients contracting with the CHC, the electronic patients and the general,and to create the time series ARMA model to predict the trend of the visit.Results There is an obvious rise trend in visit amount of people contracting with CHC.According to the prediction of the time series mode l fitting for the visit of people contracting with CHC,the visit will keep the i ncrease trend in some period and the rise of the amount of the visit is attribut ed to the increase of the visit per capita.Conclusion The community family physician model can provi de the personal health service for registers with CHC by the family health recor d.The community family physician model is a feasible health care model for Chine se situation.