Clinical evaluation of total serum calcium in primary hyperparathyroidism and the risk of death after surgery

Abstract. This study aims to understand the behaviour and clinical value of total serum calcium in untreated primary hyperparathyroidism, to identify the significant relationship between pre-operative total serum calcium and the risk of death after surgery, and to consider the issue of when to operate. The risk of death after surgery was studied as dependent on pre-operative serum calcium levels in a series of 896 patients followed up for mean 12.9 years (SD 6.1) after surgery. The predictive power of pre-operative peak calcium levels was stronger than that of mean calcium levels. It was found that an increase of peak serum calcium from 2.60 mmolL^-1 to 2.90 in one patient meant a death risk increase, with 38% still 5 years after surgery. The marginal risk increase per mmolL^-1 was found to be higher below the peak serum calcium level of 2.90 mmolL^-1 than above that level. The variation of total serum calcium before surgery was found to be substantial and the occurrence of transient high serum calcium levels was not unusual. Therefore, conservative surveillance with yearly total serum calcium estimations seems insufficient. Rather, early surgery, when serum calcium levels are not more than moderately increased, appears to be the most favourable alternative.