前瞻性时空扫描统计量与时空重排扫描统计量在传染病聚集性探测中的适用性探讨

目的探讨前瞻性时空扫描统计量与时空重排扫描统计量在传染病聚集性探测中的适用性。方法以成都市2009年5、6月细菌性痢疾病例数据为例,分别采用前瞻性时空扫描统计量与时空重排扫描统计量,运用SaTScan9.0软件进行聚集性探测,并对结果进行比较分析。结果前瞻性时空扫描统计量扫描结果与成都各区县实际发病轨迹较接近,前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量在发病率较低的区域扫描结果有相对较多的误报。结论由于前瞻性时空扫描统计量考虑了人口数据信息,在低发病区域,实际应用中应尽量采用时空扫描统计量进行聚集性探测。

Investigation of application between prospective space-time scan statistics and prospective space-time permutation scan statistics on cluster detection

OBJECTIVE To explore the application between prospective space-time scan statistics and prospective space-time permutation scan statistics on cluster detection.METHODS Used prospective space-time scan statistics and prospective space-time permutation scan statistics to detect the bacillary dysentery cases cluster in May and June 2009 in Chengdu,and the results were compared.RESULTS Prospective space-time scan statistics had a better cluster detection performance.The other was relatively more false positives in low incidence area.CONCLUSION As the prospective space-time scan statistics takes into account demographic data,the results are more accurate.The actual application of prospective space-time scan statistics should be adopted in clustering detection in low incidence area.