圆形分布法分析石家庄市流行性腮腺炎发病的季节性和长期趋势

目的分析石家庄市2004～2009年流行性腮腺炎发病的季节性和长期趋势,为有效防制其流行提供参考依据。方法对全国传染病疫情信息网络直报系统上报的石家庄市流行性腮腺炎疫情资料,用圆形分布法分析流行性腮腺炎发病的高峰日和高峰期,用相关分析法分析流行性腮腺炎发病的长期趋势。结果①石家庄市流行性腮腺炎发病存在明显的季节性,其季节分布特征是,全年均可发病,2～3月份发病人数逐渐增多,4～5月份达高峰,6月份以后下降,8～10月份最低。②2004~2009年石家庄市流行性腮腺炎发病均存在明显的高峰日和高峰期(P﹤0.01),各年发病高峰日不相同或不全相同(F=167.213,P﹤0.01),总高峰日在4月26日,总高峰期为1月16日～8月5日。③2004～2005年石家庄市流行性腮腺炎发病较少,2006～2007年明显上升,2008～1009年发病略有下降但仍维持在较高水平。结论石家庄市流行性腮腺炎发病存在明显的季节高峰,发病高峰日多集中在4~5月份,高峰期从1月中旬到8月上旬,应围绕此发病高峰期采取有效防控措施。

Analysis of seasonality and long-term trend of epidemic parotitis with circle distribution in Shijiazhuang

OBJECTIVE To analyze the seasonality and long-term trend of epidemic parotitis in Shijiazhuang city from 2004 to 2009,so as to provide scientific basis for control and prevention of epidemic parotitis.METHODS The incidence data of epidemic parotitis were derived from China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention.The seasonal characteristics including peak day and crest time of epidemic parotitis were analyzed by circle distribution.The long-term trend of epidemic parotitis was analyzed by correlation.RESULTS ① The incidence of epidemic parotitis had an obvious seasonality in Shijiazhuang,that was,epidemic parotitis might occur in each month all the year,which gradually increased from February and March,and arrived the peak time in April and May,but gradually decreased from June.The disease number was in lower level from August to October.② There were obvious peak day and crest time of epidemic parotitis from 2004 to 2009(P﹤0.01).The peak day of epidemic parotitis in each year was different or partly different(F = 167.213,P﹤0.01).The peak day all the year was 26th April,and the crest time was from 16th January to 5th August.③ The incidence of epidemic parotitis was in low level from 2004 to 2005,but the incidence significant increased from 2006 to 2007,and the incidence decreased lightly but was in high level from 2008 to 2009.CONCLUSION There is a obvious seasonality of epidemic parotitis,which is concentrated in April and May,the crest time is concentrated from the middle ten days of January to the first ten days of August,effective precautions must be adopted according to the crest time.