Longitudinal PSA changes in men with and without prostate cancer: assessment of prostate cancer risk

BACKGROUND: To determine longitudinal PSA changes over a period of 10 years in patients with and without prostate cancer. METHODS: Serial PSA measurements performed over 10 years were evaluated in 353 men who eventually developed prostate cancer and in 2.462 participants of a screening program without prostatic malignancy. RESULTS: In men with cancer, mean tPSA increased from 2.28 ng/ml at 10 years before diagnosis to 6.37 ng/ml at the time of postive biopsy (PSA velocity: 0.409 ng/ml/year). PSA velocity was significantly associated with Gleason scores and pathologic stage. In the benign group (n=2.462), mean tPSA increased from 1.18 to 1.49 ng/ml over a period of 10 years (PSA velocity of 0.03 ng/ml/year). Of the subjects with tPSA levels of 2 ng/ml or less, 2 years prior to cancer diagnosis, 11.4% had tPSA values of more than 4 ng/ml at the time of biopsy. Of the 972 men with tPSA below 1 ng/ml 2 years before the most recent measurement was obtained, 966 (99.4%) had no evidence of prostate cancer 2 years later, while six were found to have malignancies (0.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal PSA changes in men with and without prostate cancer are significantly different. Annual testing may not be required in men with baseline tPSA levels of 1 ng/ml or below, whereas in patients with levels higher than 1 ng/ml, it seems to be indicated because of the significant percentage of men presenting with tPSA levels of more than 4 ng/ml two years later.