| 基于ARIMA模型的张家川地区胃炎发病情况研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 田富鹏,桂露.基于ARIMA模型的张家川地区胃炎发病情况研究[J].现代预防医学,2010,37(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 田富鹏 桂露 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北民族大学网络信息中心,兰州,730030 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]有关胃炎发病情况的时间序列分析研究较少,通过建立数学模型,研究胃炎发病的相关情况,可以做到及时预防。方法]通过SPSS软件对甘肃张家川地区胃炎发病病例监测登记资料进行统计分析,同时进行时间序列模型拟合,观察疾病发展趋势。结果]得到最优时间序列模型ARIMA(1,1,1)及其数学表达式Yt=0.843Yt-1+0.157Yt-2+at-0.558at-1并进行了实际值与预测值比较。结论]研究胃炎发病的相关情况,有重点地进行健康防治工作,有效地降低胃炎对人类的危害,从而保障了人类的生活品质。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 AIUMA模型 肺炎 |
RESEARCH ON THE GASTRITIS MORBIDITY SITUATION IN ZHANGJIACHUAN REGION BASED ON ARIMA MODEL |
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| TIAN Fu-peng,GUI Lu.RESEARCH ON THE GASTRITIS MORBIDITY SITUATION IN ZHANGJIACHUAN REGION BASED ON ARIMA MODEL[J].Modern Preventive Medicine,2010,37(5). |
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| Authors: | TIAN Fu-peng GUI Lu |
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| Institution: | TIAN Fu-peng,GUI Lu.(Network & Information Center,Northwest University for Nationalities,Lanzhou 730030,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective] There are less time series analysis on the incidence of gastritis,and we could research on the incidence of gastritis by establishing mathematical models,so as to provide basis for preventing gastritis.Methods] SPSS software was used to analyze the registration data of gastritis in Zhangjiachuan of Gansu,and time-series model was fitting to observe disease trends at the same time.Results] The optimal time series model ARIMA(1,1,1) and their mathematical expression Yt=0.843Yt-1+0.157Yt-2+at-0.5... |
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| Keywords: | SPSS |
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