失代偿期肝硬化患者的终末期肝病模型预后分析

目的尝试性研究终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分系统与失代偿期肝硬化患者短期(3个月) 预后的关系;研究Child—Pugh分级与失代偿期肝硬化患者3个月预后的关系。方法应用MELD模型公式及Child—Pugh分级对110例住院治疗的失代偿期肝硬化患者进行评分及分级,同时了解其3个月内的病死率。结果39例患者在3个月内死亡。MELD10～19、20～29、≥30分患者3个月的病死率分别为38.18%、64.71%、75.00%,明显高于MELD≤9分患者(11.76%,P<0.05)。MELD≥18分患者3个月的病死率明显高于MELD<18分患者(58.06%与26.58%,x2=9.643,P<0.01)。Child A级患者3个月病死率为14.89%,B级为42.55%,C级为75.00%。结论MELD模型能准确预测肝硬化失代偿期患者短期的临床预后,而Child—Pugh分级也可准确预测失代偿期肝硬化患者3个月的病死率。

Analysis of prognosis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis using the criterion of the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) with Child-Pugh scoring, and the prognosis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis. METHODS: 110 patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis were graded with MELD formula and with Child-Pugh. The death rate was observed within three months. RESULTS: 31 patients died within 3-months. The mortality of patients whose MELD scores were between 10 approximately 19, 20 approximately 29, and > or = 30 was higher than those with MELD < or = 9 (The mortality of those with MELD less than 9, 10 approximately 19, 20 approximately 29, or > or = 30 was 11.76%, 38.18%, 64.71%, 75.00% respectively). The mortality of patients whose MELD scores were > or = 18 was higher than those with MELD < 18 (The mortality of those with MELD < 18, MELD > or = 18 was 26.58%, 58.06% respectively. chi2 = 9.643). The mortality of Child A, B, C was 14.89%, 42.55%, 75% respectively. CONCLUSION: Both MELD and Child-Pugh scores can accurately predict the short-term prognosis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.