上海市长宁区手足口病与气象因素相关性研究

目的 探索手足口病发病与气象因素的相关性.方法 按月整理2005～2010年间手足口病发病数及对应月份的气象数据.结果 4～7月为长宁区手足口病发病高峰.进行手足口病月发病数和气象因素的相关分析,结果发现月发病数与平均温度、最低温度、最高温度、降雨日、蒸发量的相关性有统计学显著性,与日照时间、相对湿度、降雨量的相关性无统计学显著性.当月气温≥20℃(OR=13.32,95％CI=1.587～ 111.793),手足口病高发(≥50例/月)的风险加大.结论 手足口病发病和部分气象因素存在相关性.使用气象因素如平均气温等进行手足口病疫情的预测具有一定的价值.

Relationship between climatic factors and incidence of hand-foot-mouth diseasae in Changning District, Shanghai

Objective To study the relationship between climatic factors and incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease （HFMD） in Changning District. Methods Data of prevalence of HFMD and climate （such as temperature, barometric pres- sure, relative humidity, raining days and precipitation） between 2005 and 2010 in Changning District were collected and ana- lyzed. Results The infection peak of HFMD were from April to July in 2005-2012. Correlation analysis between monthly incidence of HFMD and climatic factors showed that the HFMD incidence was statistically significantly correlated with average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainy days and evaporation. However, the duration of sunshine, rel- ative humidity, precipitation were not statistically significandy correlated with incidence of HFMD. When average temperature was ≥20℃ （95% CI = 1.587-111.793）, the risk of HFMD epidemic （≥ 50 cases/month） would increased. Conclusion The incidence of HFMD is correlated with some climatic factors. Thus the climatic factors be taken into account for predicting the occurrence of HFMD.