散装熟肉制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的定量风险评估

目的 对我国散装熟肉制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌(简称单增李斯特菌)的风险进行定量评估.方法 单增李斯特菌污染熟肉制品资料来源于2009年全国食源性疾病监测网,共涉及841份样品,对所有的841份样品进行了定性检验,另对其中的97份样品进行了定量检测;熟肉制品摄入量资料来源于2002年中国居民营养与健康调查的结果;收集国家统计局2008年监测点地区人口资料,估算不同年龄人口构成,作为评估不同人群疾病概率的基数.采用@Risk软件,按照危害识别、危害特征描述、暴露评估、风险特征描述等4个步骤定量评估0-4、5～64及65岁以上人群消费散装熟肉制品患李斯特菌病的风险,同时进行敏感性分析.结果 96.08%(808/841)的样品中单增李斯特菌的量＜3 MPN/g(0.5 1g MPN/g),散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌浓度平均为-0.61 1g CFU/g,其90%可信区间为-1.22～0.46 1g CFU/g;推算我国0～4、5～64和65岁以上人群消费熟肉制品的份数分别为5.52×109、8.99×1010、1.01×1010;0～4、5～64及65岁以上人群消费散装熟肉制品每年引起每百万人患病的病例数的中位数分别为5.53×10-3、1.72×10-4、7.57×10-3.敏感性分析结果显示,零售时散装熟肉制品的污染情况、消费量、家庭贮存温度、家庭贮存时间及5℃的指数生长率与患病风险的关系均是正相关(r值分别为0.607、0.408、0.339、0.259、0.183,P值均＜0.05).结论 我国散装熟肉制品具有引起单增李斯特菌病的风险;零售时散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌的污染情况对风险的影响最大.

Abstract：

Objective To conduct a quantitative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products in China.Methods The data on the contamination level of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked meat products was from national foodborne disease surveillance network.involving a total of 841samples.All the samples were detected by a qualitative method and 97 samples among them were detected using a quantitative method.The intake data of cooked meats was from Chinese National Nutrition and Health Survey in 2002 and population data in the monitoring sites was collected from National Bureau of Statistics in 2008 to estimate the composition of the population of different ages.which would be the base ofassessing the probability of listeriosis in the different subpopulations.Using @ Risk software to estimate the risk of listeriosis caused by consuming deli meats for different subpopulation(0-4 years old,5-64 years old and 65 years and older)by quantitative risk assessments which involved hazard identification,hazard characterization,exposure assessment and risk characterization and conduct sensitivity analysis.Results The contamination level of Listeria monocytogenes in the most of samples(96.08%.808/841)was less than 3 MPN/g(0.5 1g MPN/g),and the average concentration of Listeria monocytogenes was -0.61 1g CFU/g(90%CI:-1.22-0.46 1g CFU/g).Estimated servings of cooked meat consumption for 0-4,5-64 and 65 years and older were 5.52 × 109,8.99×1010.1.01×1010,respectively.Estimated number of cases(median)of listeriosis each year per million people caused by consuming cooked meats in young(0-4 years old),intermediate age(5-64 years old)and elderly(65 years and older)population were 5.53×10-2,1.72×10-4,7.57×10-3,respectively.Results of sensitivity analysis showed that contamination level at retail,serving size of cooked meats,storage time at home,storage temperature and ERG at 5 ℃ were positive factors for the risk of listeriosis(r value was 0.607,0.408,0.339,0.259,0.183 respectively,P＜0.05).Conclusion Cooked meat products in bulk is a risk food,which could cause listeriosis.Contamination level of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked meat products in bulk is the top risk factor for the listeriosis.

Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products

Objective To conduct a quantitative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products in China.Methods The data on the contamination level of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked meat products was from national foodborne disease surveillance network.involving a total of 841samples.All the samples were detected by a qualitative method and 97 samples among them were detected using a quantitative method.The intake data of cooked meats was from Chinese National Nutrition and Health Survey in 2002 and population data in the monitoring sites was collected from National Bureau of Statistics in 2008 to estimate the composition of the population of different ages.which would be the base ofassessing the probability of listeriosis in the different subpopulations.Using @ Risk software to estimate the risk of listeriosis caused by consuming deli meats for different subpopulation(0-4 years old,5-64 years old and 65 years and older)by quantitative risk assessments which involved hazard identification,hazard characterization,exposure assessment and risk characterization and conduct sensitivity analysis.Results The contamination level of Listeria monocytogenes in the most of samples(96.08%.808/841)was less than 3 MPN/g(0.5 1g MPN/g),and the average concentration of Listeria monocytogenes was -0.61 1g CFU/g(90%CI:-1.22-0.46 1g CFU/g).Estimated servings of cooked meat consumption for 0-4,5-64 and 65 years and older were 5.52 × 109,8.99×1010.1.01×1010,respectively.Estimated number of cases(median)of listeriosis each year per million people caused by consuming cooked meats in young(0-4 years old),intermediate age(5-64 years old)and elderly(65 years and older)population were 5.53×10-2,1.72×10-4,7.57×10-3,respectively.Results of sensitivity analysis showed that contamination level at retail,serving size of cooked meats,storage time at home,storage temperature and ERG at 5 ℃ were positive factors for the risk of listeriosis(r value was 0.607,0.408,0.339,0.259,0.183 respectively,P＜0.05).Conclusion Cooked meat products in bulk is a risk food,which could cause listeriosis.Contamination level of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked meat products in bulk is the top risk factor for the listeriosis.