Serum markers for predicting significant necroinflammatory activity in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Objectives

The aim of this study was to determine the serum markers that predict significant inflammation in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

Design and methods

Between October 2005 and June 2009, 384 subjects with CHB were enrolled.

Results

Multiple logistic regression analysis identified the ALT, hyaluronic acid (HA) and procollagen III N-terminal peptide (PIIINP) as independent predictors of significant inflammation (grade ≥ 3). We constructed a formula for predicting significant inflammation. A significant inflammation (SI) score = 1.773 × ALT score + 1.599 × PIIINP score + 0.677 × HA score − 1.962. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of the SI score was 0.831. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the SI score were 79.5%, 70.8%, 76.8% and 74.3%, respectively.

Conclusions

A simple scoring system including ALT, PIIINP and HA is an accurate non-invasive predictor of significant inflammatory activities in patients with CHB.