| ARIMA模型在传染病发病率预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴家兵,叶临湘,尤尔科. ARIMA模型在传染病发病率预测中的应用[J]. 数理医药学杂志, 2007, 20(1): 90-92 |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴家兵 叶临湘 尤尔科 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华中科技大学同济医学院流行病与卫生统计教研室,武汉,430030
2. 十堰市东风疾病预防控制所 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的:探讨应用时间序列ARIMA模型进行法定传染病发病率预测的可行性。方法:应用SPSS11.5软件对1986年~2002年逐月发病率进行RIMA模型建模拟合,用所得到的模型对2003年各月发病率进行预测,并与实际发病率进行比较。结果:ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12模型很好地拟合了既往时间段上的发病率序列,对2003年各月发病率的预测值符合实际发病率变动趋势。结论:ARIMA模型能很好地模拟传染病发病率在时间序列上的变动趋势,并对未来的发病率进行预测,为传染病防治工作服务。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列分析 ARIMA模型 预测 法定传染病 发病率 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-4337（2007）01-0090-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-02-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-02-26 |
Prediction of Incidence of Notifiable Contagious Diseases by Appalication of Time Series Model |
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| Wu Jiabing,et al. Prediction of Incidence of Notifiable Contagious Diseases by Appalication of Time Series Model[J]. Journal of Mathematical Medicine, 2007, 20(1): 90-92 |
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| Authors: | Wu Jiabing et al |
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| Abstract: | Objective: To explore the feasibility of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) model to predict the incidence of notifiable contagious diseases in Dong Feng Motor Corporation(DFM). Methods: SPSS 11.5 software was used to construct the ARIMA model based on the month incidence of contagious disease in DFM form Jan.1986 to Dec.2002.Then the constructed model was used to predict the month incidence in 2003 and prediction was compared with actual incidence.Results: ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 exactly fitted the incidence of the previous month.incidence in 2003 by the model was consistent with the actual incidence.Conclusion: The method of time series analysis can be used to fit exactly the changes of the incidence of notifiable contagious diseases and to predict the incidence in future. |
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| Keywords: | time series analysis ARIMA model forecasting notifiable contagious disease incidence |
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