Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization

Background/Aim

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the recommended treatment for patients with Barcelona stage B hepatocellular carcinoma; however, community practice varies from these American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases guidelines. In this study, we sought to assess factors determining outcome after TACE and examine adherence to guidelines.

Methods

From January 2006 to December 2012, 308 patients with newly diagnosed HCC were treated at the Veterans Affairs (VA) Ann Arbor Healthcare System. Of these, 109 patients underwent TACE. The primary outcome measured mortality. Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to determine the cumulative probability of death. Cox regression was used to assess the predictors of mortality.

Results

The median age of the 109 patients was 60 years (48–90), 97 % were males and 82 % had chronic HCV infection. The median size of the largest lesion was 4 cm, 51 % were multifocal, and portal vein thrombosis was present in 3.6 %. Sixty-two patients died after median 333 days from the index TACE treatment. Median overall survival from index TACE was 11.2 months. Unadjusted 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival was 64, 35, and 24 %, respectively. CTP score (B vs. A: HR 2.51, p = 0.002; C vs. A: HR 7.96, p < 0.0001) and presence of complete response to TACE (HR 0.51, p = 0.004) were independent predictors of mortality. Barcelona stage (p = 0.88) and performance status as measured by ECOG (p = 0.98) were not associated with mortality after TACE.

Conclusions

In this community based, single VA center study, we found a significant number of patients beyond Barcelona stage B were treated with TACE. Advanced TNM stage, poor liver synthetic function and achieving CR with TACE were better predictors of mortality than guideline-directed decisions based on Barcelona stage. These factors may be useful to guide future patient selection for TACE.