饮用水浑浊度与胃肠道疾病相关关系的研究

目的]研究城市饮用水的浑浊度与人群胃肠道疾病之间是否存在相关关系；如果有相关关系的存在，则估算一下由于浑浊度引起的胃肠道疾病治疗的医疗费用的增加有多少。方法]利用回顾性时间序列分析模型，比较分析了1994年1月至1996年6月（共30个月）期间因胃肠道疾病而寻求就诊的次数与饮用水浑浊度变化的关系。结果]饮用水周平均浑浊度与因胃肠道不适而引发就医的周平均就诊次数等均呈现一级自回归的数据特征；饮用水周平均浑浊度与第三周的周平均就诊次数存在着统计学上显著的相关关系；在所研究的30个月里，由于饮用水浑浊度的增加导致城市居民因患胃肠道疾病而寻求就诊的医疗费用增加了大约10%。结论]饮用水的浑浊度的增加可能会导致胃肠道疾病发生率增高，从而增加相应的医疗费用。

A Study on the Association between Drinking Water Turbidity and Gastrointestinal Illness

To investigate whether an association exists between drinking water turbidity and the incidence of gastrointestinal illness in a city. To estimate the medical expenses attributable to elevated water turbidity if the above association presents. A retrospective time series analysis comparing physician office visits due to gastrointestinal illness and drinking water turbidity ,for the time period from January 1994 to June 1996(30 months). Both weekly average dinking water turbidity and physician office visits due to gastrointestinal illness follow an one degree autoregression,AR(1),time series model. A statistically significant association was found between weekly average drinking water turbidity and a 3 week lagged weekly average physician office visits due to gastrointestinal illness. Elevated turbidity contributed approximately 10% extra medical expenses for the city during this period of time. Conclusion] Increased drinking water turbidity appears to be responsible for increased incidene of gastrointestinal illness ,contributing to extra medical expenses.