北京、广东、宜昌三地吸毒人群基数的快速评估

目的：探索科学、实用的快速评估吸毒人群基数的方法。方法：采用多轮快速评估方法（改进的Delphi方法），于2005年12月至2006年5月，在北京、广东、宜昌三地的戒毒人员中进行本地区滥用海洛因和新型毒品（冰毒、摇头丸、“K”粉）人数的调查估计。结果：估计2005年12月北京市滥用海洛因人数的中位数是40000（30000～60000），是同期登记在册人数的2．14（1．60～3．21）倍；估计滥用新型毒品人数的中位数是30000（25000～50000）。估计2006年5月广东省滥用海洛因人数的中位数是400000（310000～500000），是同期登记在册人数的2．13（1．65～2．66）倍；估计滥用新型毒品人数的中位数是420000（400000～600000）。估计2006年5月宜昌市滥用海洛因人数的中位数是10500（9000～15000），是同期登记在册人数的2．63（2．25～3．75）倍；估计滥用新型毒品人数的中位数是13000（8000～20000）。结论：应用快速评估方法在戒毒人员中进行毒品滥用情况估计，方法比较科学、实用、易行；虽然存在一些影响估计结果的因素，但随着研究设计和现场实施技术的不断完善，此类快速调查评估可应用于毒品滥用流行程度评估研究。

Rapid Assessment for Estimating the Size of Drug Abusers in Beijing,Guangdong and Yichang

Objective:To explore a scientific and suitable method for rapidly estimating the size of drug abusers.Methods:Multiple-stage rapid assessment(modified Delphi technique)was used in the survey of drug abusers in Beijing,Guangdong and Yichang respectively during December 2005 to May 2006.Results:The median of the estimated number of heroin abusers in Beijing in December 2005 was 40 000(30 000-60 000),which was 2.14(1.60-3.21)times as much as that of the registered number of the same term;the median of the estimated number of new types of drugs abusers was 30 000(25 000-50 000).The median of the estimated number of heroin abusers in Guangdong Province in May 2006 was 400000(310 000-500 000),which was 2.13(1.65-2.66)times as much as that of the registered number of the same term;the median of the estimated number of new types of drugs abusers was 420 000(400 000-600 000).The median of the estimated number of heroin abusers in Yichang in May 2006 was 10 500(9 000-15 000),which was 2.63(2.25-3.75)times as much as that of the registered number of the same term;the median of the estimated number of new types of drugs abusers in Guangdong was 420 000(400 000-600 000).Conclusion:Applications of rapid assessment for estimating the size of drug abusers is simple and valid.Although there are some factors that can affect assessment procedure,rapid assessment can be used in estimating the size of drug abusers study with research design and operation technique being improved.