河南省居民1984-2009年肝癌死亡率趋势分析及预测

目的:探讨河南省居民1984-2009年肝癌死亡率变化趋势,对河南省未来10年(2010-2019年)的肝癌死亡率进行预测.方法:从河南省癌症及生命统计中心数据库中抽取河南省1984-2009年死于肝癌的全部记录及相应时期的人口数据,计算各时期死亡率、中国标准人口调整死亡率(简称中调率)及世界标准人口调整死亡率,用Joinpoint模型估计死亡率的时间变化趋势.运用线性模型对河南省2010-2019年的肝癌死亡率进行预测.结果:1984-2009年河南省生命统计登记中心报告死于肝癌总人数为53 432人.男性中调率从1984-1988年的18.54/10万上升到2004-2009年的26.85/10万；相应时期女性中调率由8.14/10万上升到12.96/10万.Joinpoint模型趋势参数显示,男、女性肝癌中调率呈逐年上升趋势.预测结果显示,2010-2014年男性中调率为27.90/10万,女性中调率为13.13/10万；2015-2019年男性中调率为28.50/10万,女性中调率为13.00/10万.结论:河南省居民肝癌死亡率在1984-2009年有明显上升趋势,未来10年(2010-2019年)上升趋势逐渐减缓.

Time trend analysis and prediction of liver cancer mor tality of residents in Henan Province, 1984-2009

Objective: To investigate the trend in mortality of liver cancer between 1984 and 2009, and to predict the mortality trend of liver cancer in the next ten years (2010-2019) in residents in Henan Province. Methods: The complete data of liver cancer deaths and the population data in the corresponding period (1984-2009) in Henan Province were drawn from Henan Provincial Center for Tumor and Health Statistics Database. The period-specific mortality rates and the age-adjusted mortality rates directly standardized to China’s population and the world population were calculated. The time trend of mortality was estimated by Joinpoint model. The mortality rates of liver cancer in the next ten years (2010-2019) in Henan Province were predicted by using linear regression model. Results: A total of 53 432 cases dying with liver cancer was reported by vital statistics registry center in Henan Province between 1984 and 2009. For men, the age-standardized mortality (China’s population) was 18.54/100 000 between 1984 and 1988 and it was increased to 26.85/100 000 between 2004 and 2009; for women, the age- standardized mortality (China’s population) was increased from 8.14/100 000 to 12.96/100 000. The trend parameters estimated by Joinpoint model demonstrated that the age-standardized mortality (China’s population) of liver cancer showed an increasing trend in male and female. Predictive model demonstrated that the age-standardized mortality rates (China’s population) in male and female during the period of 2010-2014 were 27.90/100 000 and 13.13/100 000, respectively; during the period of 2015-2019, the age-standardized mortality rates (China’s population) in male and female were 28.50/100 000 and 13.00/100 000, respectively. Conclusion: The mortality rate of liver cancer in Henan Province was in an increasing trend, 1984-2009. This upward trend will slow down in the next ten years (2010-2019).