Evaluation of Bayesian predictability of vancomycin concentration using population pharmacokinetic parameters in pediatric patients

The objective of this study was to evaluate the Bayesian predictability of vancomycin (VCM) pharmacokinetics in Japanese pediatric patients using one-compartment population pharmacokinetic (PPK) parameters, which we reported previously. The validity of the PPK model was evaluated by bootstrap method and cross validation method, and the Bayesian predictive performance was examined. The predictive performance of the PPK model for premature patients was also examined. The cross validation method showed the predictability to be acceptable for practical use, especially for predicting trough concentration using other trough data. However, for the external premature patient data, this PPK model did not seem to be adequate. A theoretical approach using a simulation technique was also examined to evaluate the predictive performance. The results suggested that the predictability at the peak was not necessarily good at all sampling times and the predictability at the trough was better when a later time point was used. The optimal sampling time for prediction of VCM concentration in pediatric patients is discussed.